Eastern Ukraine Set To Vote Itself Out Of Existence.

Eastern Ukrainians are going to the polls today determined to vote their own country out of existence. To say that the poll is haphazard, with few polling booths and no electoral register all organised by shadowy figures in army fatigues and balaclavas, is putting it mildly. Meanwhile Vladimir Putin, acutely aware that this ad hoc referendum is unlikely to be taken seriously by the rest of us, is urging postponement until it can be organised properly and have at least a shred of credibility. It would seem that the process put in train by the Kremlin is in danger of running out of control and Putin may soon be faced with another embarrassing referendum demanding that he annex the whole of Eastern Ukraine as part of his newly re-created Soviet Union. The problem for Putin is that his scheme to put the clock back twenty years or so is fast becoming obvious to everyone else and that he has, perhaps, been a bit too clever for his own good. Put simply the cat is now well and truly out of the bag and Putin is having no luck whatsoever in trying to stuff it back in again. Following the well-known path trod by Hitler in the 1930's when he "reintegrated" the Rhineland, Austria and the Sudetenland into the Third Reich, Putin would have been better served by heeding Theodore Roosevelt's advice to "Walk softly and carry a big stick." It looks inevitable now that the Ukraine will be divided even as a new Iron Curtain descends across the continent. As that great philosopher of the western world, Woody Allen, once observed; "It's deja vu all over again."

What Putin Wants Putin Gets.

You have to give Vladimir Putin his due - he certainly knows how to play the game. It is clear that he wanted the Crimea and, as far as he is concerned, for good reasons. A great deal of Russia's military assets are stationed there and he was never likely to simply give them up because Ukrainian democracy had raised its ugly head. His strategy is now entering the end game as was signalled when he called President Obama and assured him that he had no intention of invading eastern Ukraine as long as ethnic Russians were not threatened with retribution. The massive Russian military build up along the border with no signs that an invasion is imminent seems to add weight to his words. The truth is that he has out-witted and out-manoeuvred the Ukrainians, the EU and the United States, offering to negotiate a settlement that gives him exactly what he wants in return for not mounting an invasion he had no intention of mounting in the first place and in return for a promise to protect ethnic Russians that were never under any credible threat. Putin has adhered to the most basic principle of crisis management - he has given his opponents the opportunity to negotiate an exit without losing face. There are some commentators in the west who believe it is Putin who is trying to save face while backing away from a perilous military adventure. This is utter nonsense since Putin is still holding all the cards including the most important card of all - the Crimea - while any cards the west thinks it has are only those given to them by Putin himself. Get ready for western leaders telling us that they have faced Putin down, but have had to let him keep the Crimea in a diplomatic "compromise" that will sweeten the bitter pill of his humiliation. Get ready too for the end of the sanctions against Russia as relations return to "normal" and the west rewards Putin for being such a reasonable chap after all.